- 目前,全球都明顯地感受到氣候變化的實質影響;2015-2019年是有記錄以來最熱的五年
- 企業已經容易受到短期的干擾;長期氣候風險可能會顛覆商業模式
- 隨著決策層加強對氣候變化威脅的應對,我們也看到風險和機遇同時出現
什麼是氣候變化?有何重要性?
簡單而言,氣候變化是指地球的天氣模式和溫度出現大規模和長期的變化。氣候變化的實質影響——更長時間的熱浪和乾旱、極端的冬季、更頻繁和更強烈的風暴、洪水和海平面上升—現今全球都清楚感受。氣候變化擾亂了經濟和社會,往往影響到社會中最貧窮和最脆弱的階層。
圖1:全世界多個地區的氣溫創新高
注:地圖顯示某個位置2019年8月的平均氣溫與往年同月的對比情況,每個位置至少有80年的資料。
資料來源:美國國家海洋和大氣管理局國家環境信息中心,2019年8月全球氣候報告。
最近的事態發展顯示,在簽訂具有里程碑意義的2015年《巴黎氣候協定》後,加上由瑞典環保主義者通貝里領導的氣候行動在國際逐漸形成動力,促使各國刻不容緩地履行承諾。該協定設定了將全球變暖幅度限於較工業化前上升1.5°C(或「遠低於」2°C)的最終目標。
其他措施包括科學基礎減碳目標倡議組織和氣候相關財務披露工作小組旨在通過提供技術專長支援,協助企業為正面的氣候變化成果做貢獻,並管理氣候風險。
這種緊迫性是必要的。最近的氣候趨勢令人擔憂:世界氣象組織最新資料顯示,2015年至2019年是有記錄以來最熱的五年,2015-2019年的五年平均溫度已經超過工業化前時期1.1°C。大部分有人類活動的陸地溫度上升幅度,甚至超過全球平均地表溫度。
其中大部分是人為的;聯合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會(IPCC)称,人類活動導致全球升溫高於工業化前水平約1.0°C。
更令人擔憂的是,化石燃料的使用和工業排放的二氧化碳—在大氣中吸收熱量,並加劇全球變暖的主要溫室氣體—處於前所未有的高水平。
為了穩定全球溫度,二氧化碳淨排放量必需減至零;這要求發電、工業、運輸和農業在內的所有經濟活動的排放量急劇下降,同時可能提供支援的新科技,以便從大氣中去除二氧化碳。IPCC的最新特別報告警告說,各國的減排承諾目前不足以將全球變暖幅度限制在1.5°C以內。
聯合國秘書長古特雷斯在9月下旬舉行的聯合國氣候行動峰會上表示:「氣候緊急情況是一場我們正在輸的比賽,但我們其實可以取勝。」「將升溫幅度限制在 1.5°C 仍是可能的。但是,這需要社會各個層面作出根本的轉變——如何種植糧食、使用土地、為交通工具添加燃料及推動我們的經濟 。」
圖2:全球化石燃料二氧化碳排放量處於前所未有的高水平
注:增長率是指定時期內的複合年增長率。灰帶顯示高於/低於排放估計值5%的水平,以表示排放量估算的不確定性。
資料來源:歐盟全球大氣研究排放數據庫(EDGAR)、新加坡銀行。
新加坡總理李顯龍強調該島國面臨威脅的嚴重性,並認為應該像對待該國的軍事防禦一樣嚴肅看待氣候變化防禦。「這是生死攸關的問題。」他在8月的國慶群眾大會致辭時說。
企業面臨的風險
如今,企業也已經容易受到公司和行業特定氣候風險的影響。一個簡單的例子是,冬天越暖和或夏季延長,擾亂了服裝製造商和服裝零售商訂單的可見度。
雖然帶來不便,但與更頻繁的洪水、颶風、乾旱,以及長期海平面上升為企業資產或整個經濟造成的潛在損害相比,這些問題顯得微不足道。氣候變化導致環境出現的緩慢的結構性變化,將可能在根本上改變公司運營模式的可行性。除了對企業的潛在損害外,這些變化也可能擾亂糧食生產,使人們流離失所,對社會穩定產生深遠的影響。
由前聯合國秘書長潘基文、國際貨幣基金組織總幹事格奧爾基耶娃和億萬富商慈善家蓋茨領導的全球氣候調適委員會的數據顯示:更大的海暴和風暴潮可能迫使沿海城市數以億計的人離開家園,到2050年,沿海城市每年總損失將超過1萬億美元。
政策變化給公司帶來了新的監管風險,尤其是那些化石燃料生產(石油和天然氣、熱煤)、採礦、發電和其他排放密集型行業,比如水泥和化學品製造業。
歐洲提議的規則要求投資者將詳細標準納入篩選有助於正面氣候變化成果的經濟活動,這可能迫使全球企業加強氣候風險管理資訊披露和更廣泛的環境相關績效,否則會出現失去融資渠道的風險。
由於與氣候變化相關的監管轉變,一些企業已經面臨資產價值損失比預期更快的風險,這稱為資產擱淺。這些資產可能包括:由於碳和污染稅增加而使開採變得不符經濟效益的化石燃料和礦物儲備;不符合新的能源效率和排放標準的發電基建和生產設施;以及沿海房地產和基礎設施因洪水而變得無法再使用。
總體而言,我們相信公司將面對更多與氣候風險相關的監管、環境和消費者壓力,迫使它們適應或滅亡。在最近發表的《可持續投資入門》報告中,我們指出於日益複雜的社交媒體運用的支援下,對環境、社會和治理問題的醒覺和激進行動日漸增加,鼓勵更多人士要求制定與這些問題有關的公共政策和私人商業慣例。
適應帶來的機會
逐步過渡到更加環保、具有氣候變化適應能力的全球經濟,將重塑全球的人類活動,為投資和增長帶來新的機遇。
協助設計和建設氣候防禦系統、改善水和糧食安全,以及開發節能、低排放技術和程序的公司將吸引更多的投資者興趣和投資資本。
同樣,如果旗下產品和服務能夠密切配合減廢及再利用自然資源的長期轉變—「循環經濟」,這類公司則可望受惠持續變化的消費者偏好和法規。
全球氣候調適委員會的研究提出,全球未來10年在糧食和水安全、氣候適應基礎設施等關鍵領域的投資達到1.8萬億美元。限制未來的氣候風險損失,除了帶來經濟、社會和環境好處外,也可為社會帶來7.1萬億美元的淨收益。該研究舉例說,提醒風暴或熱浪來襲的預警系統,可以拯救至少十倍於其成本的生命和資產。
結論
隨著全球決策層加強對氣候變化威脅的應對,我們看到企業和投資者正在面對新的風險和機遇。致力追求可持續發展、適應氣候改變的發展道路,並透過減排和適應氣候變化而降低氣候變化的威脅,這些或會推動整個社會出現廣泛而重大的變化。未能及時預見這些變化和作出調整的公司,可能會逐漸被投資者排擠,而在極端情況下,其運營模式或遭顛覆;成功適應的公司將受益於經濟格局的重塑,擁有更持續的商業前景,更好的發展壯大機會。
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