• 财富规划|投资
  • 2024年03月07 日

投资策略:赋权经济学: 女性、劳动力和财富

在庆祝国际妇女节之际,联合国将今年节日的主题定为“投资于妇女:加速进步”。女性占全球人口的一半,只有真正赋权女性的解决方案,才能解决当今世界面临的挑战。尤其是提高女性劳动参与率,确保领导层岗位有足够的女性代表,是缩小性别差距的两个重要途径,将对经济增长产生有利影响。

当前全球女性劳动参与率落后于男性,并非因为女性没有生产力,而是因为她们往往从事非正式工作,在经济上得不到认可。例如,女性承担料理家务和照料家人的职责,这些工作的价值既无法量化,也无法用标准经济指标来衡量。提高女性劳动参与率不仅对于实现女性权利至关重要,而且有助于发展经济,缩小因劳动适龄人口减少而产生的劳动力缺口。

印度是亚洲地区女性劳动参与率最低的国家。再加上印度是世界第一人口大国,尤其是如果能够动员更多女性加入劳动人口行列,那么该国完全有能力在不久的将来实现经济的快速增长。然而,这将取决于支持女性的必要基础设施是否到位,例如可负担的托儿设施和整体安全措施。另一方面,虽然日本劳动参与率相对较高,但接下来需要提高劳动参与人口的质量,而本行认为即将推进的企业治理改革有望提高女性领导者数量,预示组织绩效有望得到提升。

  • 提高女性劳动参与率,确保领导层岗位有足够的女性代表,是缩小性别差距的两个重要途径,将对经济增长产生有利影响
  • 如果能够提高女性劳动参与率,印度经济有望大幅增长
  • 在安倍政府时期,日本女性劳动参与率在“量”上有所提升;企业改革或预示着性别平等将在“质”上迈入新的时代

投资于妇女:加速进步

从1848年纽约塞内卡福尔斯会议 (Seneca Falls Convention)(第一场由女性组织的女性权利大会),到2021年八个国家的首位女性国家元首或政府首脑当选或宣誓就职,女性发展已取得了长足的进步。但这一路路途曲折,其间不乏挫折,如新冠疫情以及美国推翻堕胎权(罗诉韦德案(Roe v. Wade))。

因此,在庆祝国际妇女节之际,联合国将今年节日的主题定为“投资于妇女:加速进步”非常恰当,因为女性占全球人口的一半,只有真正赋权女性的解决方案,才能解决当今世界面临的挑战。

 

增加女性就业,促进经济增长

不仅女性经济赋权对于实现女性权利和性别平等至关重要,而且增加女性就业可促进经济增长。大多数国家和地区的劳动适龄人口日益缩减,即便还未面临这一问题的少数国家和地区,也存在劳动适龄人口增长率日益下降的现象。更多女性加入劳动人口行列,有助于提高公共退休金的可持续性,以及填补一系列因劳动适龄人口缩减所造成的劳动力缺口。

根据国际货币基金组织的研究,女性经济赋权可提高生产力,提升经济多元化和收入平等,以及其他一些积极的发展[1]。例如,如果将经合组织国家的女性就业率提高至与瑞典相当的水平,估计GDP将增加6万亿美元以上[2]。相反,性别差距或将导致经济损失15%的GDP[3]

哪些国家和地区拥有显著潜力,可通过提高较低的女性劳动参与率来促进GDP增长?女性劳动参与率低是否就意味着女性仅仅是在坐享清福?以下章节中我们将讨论上述问题。

 

家庭主妇

女性占全球人口的一半;然而,根据领英 (LinkedIn) 提供的数据[4],2023年163个国家和地区当中,女性在劳动人口中的占比仅41.9%。很多女性从事着非正式的工作,在经济上得不到认可,例如无报酬的护理工作,其价值既无法量化,也无法用标准的生产力衡量标准(如GDP)来衡量。

根据2014年经合组织发展中心 (OECD Development Centre) 的一项研究[5],全世界女性平均每天花费三至六个小时从事无偿护理工作(即在家中为家庭成员提供无偿服务,如照顾子女和家务劳动,理论上这些工作可以花钱聘请他人来做)。男性花费的时间为半小时至两小时,明显低于女性。这种差异可能是由于根深蒂固的性别角色造成,无偿护理工作通常被视为女性的职责。

这种情况在新冠疫情期间进一步恶化。比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会 (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation) 的研究发现,女性失业比例明显更高,并承担更多的家庭护理职责,尤其是在托儿服务中断的情况下[6]

经合组织估计,无偿工作在所有经合组织国家平均可贡献约15%的GDP,而国际劳工组织估计,无偿护理和家务劳动的价值可高达GDP的10-39%[7]

 

职业女性

赋权女性以充分发掘其经济潜力,不仅能切实支持减少性别不平等这一关键目标,而且对全球经济发展、竞争力和应对未来所作努力有着重大意义。在这方面,经验证据显示,赋予妇女经济权力和缩小关键领域的性别差距与正面的宏观经济结果息息相关,包括提高经济增长、减少不平等现象、提高生产力、改善金融部门成果和提高金融稳定性等。

——国际货币基金组织[8]

数据也显示,当前全球女性劳动参与率仅略高于47%,较男性 (72.5%) 低整整25个百分点[9]。全球所有地区的女性劳动参与率均低于男性,其中印度在全球主要地区中明显落后于其他国家/地区。

图表1:女性劳动参与率

资料来源:世界银行;数据截至2022年

 我们需要采取哪些措施来支持女性参与就业?下文列出一些值得思考的因素,但并不完善:

  • 向其子女或家庭成员提供价格适宜、便捷和优质的护理服务
  • 家庭友好政策,如育儿假
  • 提高公司内部的薪酬透明度,以缩小性别薪酬差距
  • 职业或商业技能培训
  • 为女性通勤提供安全有保障的交通方式,尤其是在针对女性的犯罪频频发生的发展中国家
  • 消除关于女性以及女性所承担工作种类的性别刻板印象

 

印度:期待出台具体的措施释放发展潜力

与其他主要地区相比,印度女性的劳动参与率一直位列最低水平。这归因于社会对女性身份地位的态度,同时印度很多女性从事无偿工作这一实际情况。如上文所述,此类工作并未纳入正式就业经济指标范围内。此外,本世纪初以来印度工业化进程开启,使得家庭收入增加,因此不太迫切需要她们加入劳动力市场,这进一步降低了女性就业率。

图表2:印度女性劳动参与率 (%) 历来是全球最低的国家之一,但疫后开始从26%小幅升至28%

资料来源:世界银行、新加坡银行

缩小就业中的性别差距,到2050年可使印度GDP提高近三成[10]。本行认为,如果能够提高女性劳动参与率,将使印度获得显著的经济增长潜力——但这将取决于政策支持和改革措施,以及其他因素。

 

性别平等于企业有益

增加女性就业和担任领导岗位的机会也将使企业大幅受益,事实上这有助于提高组织效率和增长。据估计,拥有三名或以上女性担任高级管理职位的企业在组织绩效的各个维度均获得更高评分[11]

女性领导者不仅可以通过实施促进性别平等的职场政策(如缩小男女薪酬差距,吸引更多元化的员工队伍),还可为其他女性树立榜样,提供独特的指导来启动良性循环[12]。研究还显示,女性领导者有助于提高生产力,加强合作,激发组织奉献精神和改善公平性[13]

根据摩根士丹利资本国际 (MSCI) 发布的2023年度《女性董事比例进度告》(Women on Boards and Beyond 2023 Progress Report)[14],女性在MSCI全球所有国家指数(ACWI)的大中型企业董事会席位中仅占25.8%,较2022年高1个百分点。在新兴市场该比例降至17.1%,而在MSCI新兴市场指数成分股中,董事会女性占比至少达到30%的公司仅占14.5%(MSCI全球所有国家指数:41.2%)。全球范围内,董事会领导岗位仍由男性主导,其中担任董事长和首席执行官的女性占比分别为9.1%和6.5%。

 

日本:量到质的转变

日本方面,安倍政府的“女性经济学”获得的评价褒贬不一。虽然日本政府指出,2012年至2019年期间,高达330万女性投身劳动力市场,且同期私营部门从事管理职位的女性比例接近10%,但其他统计数据显示,2017年日本劳动力市场上的2,800万女性中,有一半在非正式岗位任职,工作时长更短、薪酬更低且福利更少,相比之下,在日本3,500万男性工作者中该比例仅为16.7%。到2019年,该比例分别上升至56%和22.8%[15]。2023年,东京证券交易所上市公司的女性董事占比也仅为13%,不到全球其他交易所均值的一半[16]。因此,虽然日本女性劳动参与率在量上有所提升,但在质上的改变不太明显。

 

图表31970年代初日本人均GDP(百万日元)略有下降,但随着女性劳动参与率 (%) 的提高而上升

资料来源:世界银行、新加坡银行

然而,东京证交所在2023年3月提出改革措施,旨在开启性别平等的新时代。东京证交所设定的目标是到2030年提升女性在高管职位中的占比至30%,并敦促在东京证交所主要市场指数 (TSE Prime Market Index) 上市的公司在2030年前满足这一要求。这可能有助于更多日本公司获贝莱德和高盛资产管理等外国机构投资者青睐,这些机构投资者已承诺将对没有女性董事或女性董事极少的日本公司投反对票[17]

图表4:日本董事会女性代表占比低于其他七国集团国家,增长潜力巨大

资料来源:经合组织;彭博;新加坡银行

注:数据显示截至2022年各国最大型上市公司董事会中女性董事的占比。

对投资者的启示

如前文所述,缩小就业中的性别差距,到2050年可使印度GDP增长近三成,如果印度能够提高女性劳动参与率,印度的增长潜力将是巨大的。日本方面,虽然女性劳动参与率并不低,但在性别平等方面仍存在差距,接下来需要着重提高劳动参与率的“质量”。例如,公司和企业将受益于提高女性在管理岗位的占比等举措,这一点从该国正在进行的企业改革中可以看到希望。实际上,日本企业治理改革被视为去年以来市场反弹的催化因素之一。本行当前对日本股票持“增持”评级,相信这些改革措施还将发挥更大作用。

此外,作为提高妇女地位和鼓励女性参与经济的潜在解决方案,微型融资计划在近几年获得关注。微型融资通常会向居住在农村、贫困地区的女性提供资金和培训,以便她们能够从事创收活动,甚至创办小型企业,进而利用企业利润来改善家庭生活条件。寻求微型融资相关投资的投资者可考虑影响力基金,此类基金可跨越公开和私募市场。

1 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2018/05/31/pp053118pursuing-womens-economic-empowerment

2 https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/news-room/press-releases/2020/women-in-work-index-2020.html

3 https://doi.org/10.1787/5jm2hz8dgls6-en

4 https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-gender-gap-report-2023/

5 https://www.oecd.org/dev/development-gender/Unpaid_care_work.pdf

6 https://docs.gatesfoundation.org/documents/evidence_review_of_the_global_childcare_crisis_and_the_road_ahead_for_covid-19_recovery_and_resilience_english.pdf

7 https://www.oecd-forum.org/posts/redefining-reality-the-truth-behind-the-unpaid-care-economy

8 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2022/02/18/Tackling-Legal-Impediments-to-Womens-Economic-Empowerment-513392

9 https://www.ilo.org/infostories/en-GB/Stories/Employment/barriers-women#intro

10 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-06-02/covid-cut-india-s-women-out-of-the-job-market-now-90-aren-t-in-the-workforce

11 https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/gender-equality/women-matter-ten-years-of-insights-on-gender-diversity/de-DE

12 https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/Women-in-Leadership-Why-It-Matters.pdf

13 https://www.apa.org/topics/women-girls/female-leaders-make-work-better

14 https://www.msci.com/documents/1296102/43943104/MSCI+Women+on+Boards+and+Beyond+2023+Progress+Report.pdf

15 https://apjjf.org/2021/4/Crawford

16 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-11/japan-stock-exchange-s-board-diversity-is-among-worst-in-world

17 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-17/norway-fund-joins-goldman-in-voting-against-japan-s-male-boards

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Cross-Border Marketing
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This document may not be published, circulated, reproduced or distributed in whole or in part to any other person without the Bank’s prior written consent. This document is not intended for distribution to, publication or use by any person in any jurisdiction outside Hong Kong, or such other jurisdiction as the Bank may determine in its absolute discretion, where such distribution, publication or use would be contrary to applicable law or would subject the Bank and its related corporations, connected persons, associated persons and/or affiliates to any registration, licensing or other requirements within such jurisdiction. Indonesia: The offering of the investment product in reliance of this document is not registered under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations, and is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations. According, this investment product may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, within Indonesia or to citizens (wherever they are domiciled or located), entities or residents, in any manner which constitutes a public offering of securities under the Indonesian Capital Market Law and its implementing regulations. Japan: The information contained in this document is for general reference purposes only. It does not have regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation, risk tolerance and particular needs. Nothing in this document constitutes an offer to buy or sell or an invitation to offer to buy or sell or a recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or investment. We do not have any intention of conducting regulated business in Japan. You acknowledge that nothing in this document constitutes investment or financial advice or any advice of any nature. Malaysia: Bank of Singapore Limited does not hold any licence, registration or approval to carry on any regulated business in Malaysia (including but not limited to any businesses regulated under the Capital Markets & Services Act 2007 of Malaysia), nor does it hold itself out as carrying on or purport to carry on any such business in Malaysia. Any services provided by Bank of Singapore Limited to residents of Malaysia are provided solely on an offshore basis from outside Malaysia, either as a result of “reverse enquiry” on the part of the Malaysian residents or where Bank of Singapore Limited has been retained outside Malaysia to provide such services. As an integral part of the provision of such services from outside Malaysia, Bank of Singapore Limited may from time to time make available to such residents documents and information making reference to capital markets products (for example, in connection with the provision of fund management or investment advisory services outside of Malaysia). Nothing in such documents or information is intended to be construed as or constitute the making available of, or an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any such capital markets product. Myanmar: This document and information herein is made available by Bank of Singapore Limited, which is not licensed or registered under the Financial Institutions Law (Law No. 20/2016) or other Myanmar legislation to carry on, nor do they purport to carry on, any regulated activity in Myanmar. The provision of any products and services by Bank of Singapore Limited shall be solely on an offshore basis. You shall ensure that you have and will continue to be fully compliant with all applicable laws in Myanmar when entering into discussion or contracts with Bank of Singapore Limited. Oman: This document does not constitute a public offer of investment, securities or financial services in the Sultanate of Oman, as contemplated by the Commercial Companies Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 4/1974), Banking Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 114/2000) or the Capital Market Law of Oman (Royal Decree No. 80/1998) and the Executive Regulations of the Capital Market Law (Ministerial Decision No. 1/2009) or an offer to sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy non-Omani investment products, securities or financial services and products in the Sultanate of Oman. This document is strictly private and confidential. It is being provided to a limited number of sophisticated investors solely to enable them to decide whether or not to make an offer to invest in financial products mentioned in this document, outside of the Sultanate of Oman, upon the terms and subject to the restrictions set out herein and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose or provided to any person other than the original recipient. Additionally, this document is not intended to lead to the making of any contract within the territory or under the laws of the Sultanate of Oman. The Capital Market Authority of Oman and the Central Bank of Oman take no responsibility for the accuracy of the statements and information contained in this document or for the performance of the financial products mentioned in this document nor shall they have any liability to any person for damage or loss resulting from reliance on any statement or information contained herein. Russia: The investment products mentioned in this document have not been registered with or approved by the local regulator of any country and are not publicly distributed in Singapore or elsewhere. This document does not constitute or form part of an offer or invitation to the public in any country to subscribe for the products referred to herein. South Korea: The document does not constitute an offer, solicitation or investment advertisement to trade in the investment product referred to in the document.  Taiwan: The provision of the information and the offer of the service concerned herewith have not been and will not be registered with the Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan pursuant to relevant laws and regulations of Taiwan and may not be provided or offered in Taiwan or in circumstances which requires a prior registration or approval of the Financial Supervisory Commission of Taiwan. No person or entity in Taiwan has been authorised to provide the information and to offer the service in Taiwan. Thailand: Please note that neither Bank of Singapore Limited nor any other entities in the Bank of Singapore Limited’s group maintains any licences, authorisations or registrations in Thailand nor is any of the material and information contained, or the relevant securities or products specified herein approved or registered in Thailand. Interests in the relevant securities or products may not be offered or sold within Thailand. The attached information has been provided at your request for informational purposes only and shall not be copied or redistributed to any other person without the prior consent of Bank of Singapore Limited or its relevant entities and in no way constitutes an offer, solicitation, advertisement or advice of, or in relation to, the relevant securities or products by Bank of Singapore Limited or any other entities in Bank of Singapore Limited’s group in Thailand. The Philippines: The information contained in this document is not intended to constitute a public offering of securities under the Securities Regulation Code of the Philippines.  Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC): Bank of Singapore Limited has a branch registered in the Dubai International Financial Centre ("DIFC") which is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). Bank of Singapore Limited (DIFC Branch) is not a financial institution licensed in the United Arab Emirates outside of the DIFC and does not undertake banking or financial activities in the United Arab Emirates nor is it licensed to do so outside of the DIFC. This material is provided for information purposes only and it is general information not specific in any way to any particular investor, investor type, strategy, investment need or other financial circumstance. As such this information is not financial advice or a financial promotion, nor is it intended to influence an investor's decision to invest. It is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The material is only intended for persons who fulfill the criteria to be classified as “Professional Clients” as defined under the DFSA rules and should not be reviewed, received, provided to or relied upon by any other person. United Arab Emirates (U.A.E): The information contained herein is exclusively addressed to the recipient. The offering of certain products in this document has not been and will not be registered with the Central Bank of United Arab Emirates or Securities & Commodities Authority in the United Arab Emirates. Any products in this document that are being offered or sold do not constitute a public offering or distribution of securities under the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. This document is not intended for circulation or distribution in or into the UAE, other than to persons in the UAE to whom such circulation or distribution is permitted by, or is exempt from the requirements of, the applicable laws and regulations of the United Arab Emirates. The distribution of the information contained herein by the recipient is prohibited. Where applicable, this document relates to securities which are listed outside of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market.  The Bank of Singapore Limited is not authorized to provide investment research regarding securities listed on the exchanges of the United Arab Emirates which are outside of the DIFC.  United Kingdom: In the United Kingdom, this document is being made available only to the person or the entity to whom it is directed being persons to whom it may lawfully be directed under applicable laws and regulations of the United Kingdom (such persons are hereinafter referred to as ‘relevant persons’). Accordingly, this document is communicated only to relevant persons.  Persons who are not relevant persons must not act on or rely on this document or any of its contents. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Relevant persons in receipt of this document must not distribute, publish, reproduce, or disclose this document (in whole or in part) to any person who is not a relevant person.  United States of America: This product may not be sold or offered within the United States or to U.S. persons.

Brunei: This document has not been delivered to, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam, the authority as designated under the Brunei Darussalam Securities Markets Order, 2013 and the Banking Order, 2006; nor has it been registered with the Registrar of Companies, Registrar of International Business Companies or the Brunei Darussalam Ministry of Finance. The products mentioned in this document are not registered, licensed or permitted by the Autoriti Monetari Brunei Darussalam or by any other government agency or under any law in Brunei Darussalam. Any offers, acceptances, sales and allotments of the products shall be made outside Brunei Darussalam.