• 投资
  • 2021年05月17 日

全球升级气候治理承诺

  • 美国旨在成为全球气候领袖,承诺到2030年将碳排放减半
  • 中国的绿色债券融资排除了化石燃料,计划今年推出中欧绿色金融共同分类法标准
  • 欧盟就气候法和一系列新的配套法规达成协议

2021年4月22日(地球日),美国总统拜登承诺到2030年,美国将在2005年的基础上减排50-52% ,这是美国应对气候变化承诺的最新进展。

这一目标扩大了奥巴马政府早先承诺的到2025年减排26-28%的目标,这意味着美国在未来十年内将大幅加快脱碳步伐,使美国经济能够在2050年实现净零排放。美国还承诺将每年向发展中国家提供的气候融资增加一倍 ,以帮助减少碳排放。

一个国家气候工作组正在制定一项国家气候战略,将于今年晚些时候发布。与本行观点一致,拜登将倾尽政府之力来应对气候变化,将气候政策融入美国财政、国家安全和外交政策。

包括财政部长耶伦 (Janet Yellen) 和美国国务卿布林肯 (Antony Blinken) 在内的美国高级官员承诺,将引导公共投资,并制定相关政策,以支持美国向净零排放转型。

正如本行早些时候所强调的,中美两国在新技术优势方面的激烈竞争,将是未来几年驱动政府政策和清洁能源及相关技术投资的关键因素。

“如果我们不能主导可再生能源革命,那么美国很难在与中国的长期战略竞争中取胜。现在,我们落后一步。”布林肯在2021年4月19日的一次演讲中说:“中国现在是太阳能电池板、风力发电机、电池和电动汽车领域的最大生产国和出口国。”“我们将把气候危机作为外交政策和国家安全的重心。”

包括日本、加拿大和巴西在内的其他数国也在拜登主持的地球日气候峰会上宣布升级减排目标,增加了自2015年《巴黎协定》以来加强减排承诺的国家数量。

除了最新的减排目标,其他各大经济体的关键政策发展也正在形成,这将在未来几年改变世界经济格局。在地球日气候峰会上,中国国家主席习近平表示,中国将在2026年至2030年开始逐步取缔煤炭使用,以此作为减少温室气体排放的任务之一。去年,习主席承诺,中国碳排放将在2030年见顶,2060年将实现碳中和。

2021年4月21日,中国政府发布了一份可通过发行绿色债券融资的最新经济活动目录——“绿色债券支持项目目录”. 新目录将煤炭和其他化石燃料(甚至是“清洁利用”此类燃料)完全排除在绿色活动之外,这清楚地表明中国的政策意图,即引导绿色债券筹集资金投入低碳项目,减少对化石燃料的投资,以支持经济活动转型。

中国人民银行行长易纲2021年3月21日表示,中国正努力动员“大规模绿色投资”,同时将绿色金融作为今年和未来五年的优先工作事项。易纲表示,中国人民银行计划建立强制信息披露制度,要求所有金融机构和企业遵循统一的信息披露标准,今年还将与欧盟合作,统一这两个市场的绿色分类标准。

欧洲方面,政府领导人目前已就《欧洲气候法》达成原则性协议,目标是到2030年将温室气体净排放量从1990年的水平削减55%或更多,并在2050年实现零净排放。

欧盟还正式通过了绿色经济活动分类体系的第一部分——《欧盟可持续金融分类气候授权法案》,引入了筛选标准,以界定对适应和缓解气候变化作出重大贡献的经济活动。欧盟现行的其他主要法规包括“企业可持续发展报告指令” (CSRD) ,以确保企业提供的可持续发展信息一致且具可比性。

正如本行早前强调的,我们认为这些发展趋势是整个欧洲政策的一个重大转变,将逐步重塑整个欧洲的经济活动和全球资本配置。特别是新规要求欧盟地区的资产管理公司和投资公司整合详细的标准,以筛选对气候变化积极成果做出贡献的经济活动,这可能会迫使世界各地的公司加强气候风险管理的披露程度,扩大可持续性相关活动业绩,否则将失去融资渠道。

能源转型驱动脱碳

本行预计,大部分短期脱碳工作将集中于减少发电过程中的碳排放量,以及实现其他行业(如汽车及交通运输行业)的电气化转型。越来越多的企业为这种能源转型做好准备。

去年尽管疫情影响严重,但全球在可再生能源、供暖和运输电气化以及其他能源转型上的支出仍创下5,010亿美元新高。本行预计,未来几年这一数字将进一步增长。

Bloomberg NEF于2020年12月发布的一份分析报告显示,全球使用太阳能和风能发电的国家占世界人口的三分之二以上,占全球国内生产总值四分之三和90%的电力需求,这两种能源是目前进行新型大容量发电最廉价的能源。

早在拜登政府为加速脱碳而采取行动之前,美国能源信息管理局就预测,到2050年可再生能源在美国发电结构中的比例将从2020年的21%翻倍至42%,其中主要为风能和太阳能发电。

图表1:2020年至2050年,可再生能源发电预计将占美国新增发电量的近60%

资料来源:《2021年年度能源展望》,美国能源信息管理局

美国电力行业到2035年实现全面脱碳是拜登政府2050年实现经济碳中和的关键性战略支柱。美国国家环境保护局 (US Environmental Protection Agency) 的数据显示,1990-2019年间,发电占美国温室气体排放量的比例最大 (31%) 。

图表2:自1990年以来,发电占美国温室气体排放量的比例最大(31%)

资料来源:美国国家环境保护局。

注:图表显示了1990年至2019年间美国按源划分的温室气体排放量和碳汇量(负值),单位为百万吨二氧化碳当量。所有电力排放都归为“发电”一类,因此“住宅”和“商业”等其他行业只显示非电力源,如燃油供暖或天然气供暖。

未来仍需加大投入力度

据气候行动追踪组织于2021年5月发表的最新预测,按照目前的发展趋势,即使在4月份气候峰会上作出最新承诺,全球气温到2100年仍将上升约2.4°C,远高于《巴黎协定》1.5°C的目标。

最新预测显示,如果不采取更有力的行动,世界经济将遭重创。根据再保险公司瑞士再保险 (Swiss Re)发表的一项最新研究,按照目前的发展路径,到本世纪中叶,全球GDP或因气候变化损失近10%。

放眼全球,不远的将来可能发生的灾难性气候变化将对各大政府及行业领袖产生越来越大的影响。

2021年3月发布的一份报告显示,在全球2000家头部上市公司中,超五分之一 (21%) 的公司已承诺降低碳排放量至净零水平。

相较于其他温室气体,二氧化碳是致使全球变暖的主因,因此需重点减少其排放量。

图表3:二氧化碳是导致地球气候变暖的主要因素

资料来源:美国国家环境保护局。

注:该图表展示了自1750年以来地球大气中因温室气体浓度的变化而引起的辐射强度(净变暖影响)。在垂直右轴上,辐射强度已转换为年度温室气体指数,1990年设定为1.0。

拜登近期公布的美国就业计划包括6000多亿美元气候相关拟支出以及其他加速美国经济脱碳的措施,包括取消化石燃料行业的税收优惠,同时加大可再生能源的税收激励力度。

图表4:拜登的美国就业计划包括超6000亿美元的支出,用于提高气候适应能力,推动美国经济脱碳

资料来源:《白宫关于美国就业计划的声明》;2021年3月31日发布

美国能源部最近也提出到2030年将太阳能发电成本削减60%的目标。

整体而言,本行预计目前气候相关的强大政治势头将在未来几个月持续。在11月举行的联合国气候变化大会 (COP26) 召开之前,中美和其他各大经济体将公布更多政策声明和承诺。

随着全球政府继续加强应对气候变化威胁的政策力度,企业和投资者面临的新风险和新机遇也正在涌现,包括可再生能源以及碳捕获和储存等脱碳技术方面的投资机会。

其他一些不太显著但同样能够提供长期资产增长的投资机会包括,间接涉及制造业、交通运输业、建筑业和城市设计等持续脱碳行业的公司。其中包括空气净化系统中的专用化学品、芯片或其他关键部件的供应商。这些产品用于减少汽车和工厂碳排放,生产电动汽车电池,完善复杂自动化系统以减少建筑或工厂设施浪费并提高能效。

总的来说,全球努力寻求适应气候变化的可持续发展道路,通过减排和加强适应能力,可能促使全社会发生大范围的重大转变。若企业对这些变化的风险预测和调整进度缓慢,将可能逐渐被投资者淘汰,更甚者,其运营模式或将被颠覆;那些成功适应变化的企业将从重塑的经济格局中受益,拥有更可持续的商业前景,且更有可能获得成功。

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