• 投资
  • 2019年08月05 日

中国被列为汇率操纵国。接下来上演什么戏码?

  • 美国财政部将中国列为汇率操纵国的非同寻常举动, 加剧了市场对中美贸易紧张局势不断恶化的担忧…
  • …不过实际(相比象征性的)影响较小
  • 目前美国直接干预汇市风险不高,但正在上升

在美元兑人民币突破7这个关键的门槛后,美国总统特朗普发推特指责中国操纵汇率,美国财政部随后将中国列为汇率操纵国。这是财政部自1994年以来首次将别国列为汇率操纵国(顺便提一下,上一次也是针对中国)。

将别国列为汇率操纵国是非同寻常的举动,因为根据美国财政部针对汇率操纵国设定的3项标准,中国并不符合其中的2项,即经常账户盈余超过国内生产总值的2%,并在过去12个月中进行“持续的、单方面的”外汇市场干预。美国财政部下一份《外汇政策报告》将于10月15日公布,但他们已提前采取行动。

货币因关税冲击而走软属于正常现象。此前,中国曾努力阻止美元兑人民币破7,以防止对贸易谈判产生不利影响。但在特朗普宣布将对来自中国的3,000亿美元进口商品加征10%关税之后,短期内达成贸易协议的可能性变得更低,这就意味着没有必要在人民币汇率方面做出“善意举动”。暂停购买美国农产品的举动(此举直接打击特朗普的票仓),也表明中国立场变得更强硬。

美国财政部将中国列为汇率操纵国的举动,标志着中美贸易冲突出现重大的标志性升级,加剧了市场对贸易紧张局势可能失控的担忧,而中美两国针锋相对的措施将增加全球衰退的风险。目前,3个月至10年期美国国债收益率曲线段出现自2007年初以来最严重的倒挂,发出响亮的衰退警告。

然而,将中国列为汇率操纵国的实际影响并不大。相比301条款关税实施的惩罚措施,该标签并没有为特朗普提供任何新的、激进的短期措施选项。美国现在必须与国际货币基金组织对话,并试图说服该组织相信中国操纵汇率。目前尚不清楚国际货币基金组织是否会同意。

在货币方面,类似情况曾出现过多次:市场可能重现5月份贸易战升级引发的走势,当时贸易问题波及其他亚洲货币和对中国经济敏感的十国集团货币,投资者可以此作为合理的参考点。

美元兑人民币破7,未必意味着中国人民银行打算让人民币自由贬值。中国人民银行8月6日的美元兑人民币中间价设在7.0以下(即6.9683),是尝试减缓美元兑人民币上升的重要信号或第一步,以避免在岸市场恐慌带来更多的资本流出压力。我们也将密切关注人行为了遏制汇率疲软而收紧资本管制的可能性。

尽管如此,如果贸易战进一步升级,人民币贬值压力加大,我们预计人民币将走软。简化的关税计算(若想抵消美国关税影响,美元兑人民币须贬值到何种水平)表明:如果对3000亿美元的中国输美商品加征10%关税生效,美元兑离岸人民币将升至7.30-7.40,如果将这些商品的10%关税提高至25%,美元兑离岸人民币将升至7.80-7.90。

将中国列为汇率操纵国可能是美国政府为推动美元贬值采取的政治手段。此举将加剧市场的担忧,即美国可能采取进一步措施直接削弱美元,还有可能会直接干预汇率。特朗普对美联储施压,要求美联储大幅降息,也指向了同一方向。

美国政府有一系列阻止美元走强的选择,包括给别国贴上汇率操纵国的标签、“推特干预”、在贸易协定中使用货币条款、对出于竞争性目的推动本币贬值的国家实施反补贴税,以及通过出售美元直接干预。在这五个选择中,目前美国政府已实施前三个,因此市场可能反映美国将更有可能采取其他措施来削弱美元的预期。目前美国直接干预汇市风险不高,但正在上升。

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