Investment strategy

Investor’s Playbook under Trump 2.0

12 February 2025 • 6 mins read

US President Donald Trump throws pens to the crowd after signing executive orders during the inaugural parade inside Capital One Arena, in Washington, DC, on 20 January 2025. AFP.

In the era of Trump 2.0, the resting heart rate for uncertainty is elevated as we foresee idiosyncratic outcomes from the policy decisions of the current administration. Given the unpredictability for the next four years, it would be critical for investors to maintain a level-headed, sure-footed approach to implement one’s own investment philosophy.

Since President Trump’s inauguration on 20 January, there has been a flurry of executive orders, rapid-fire policy manoeuvres across immigration, defence and trade policies with heightened policy and implementation risks that could pose growth drags for economies and disrupt companies around the world.

The financial markets’ rollercoaster ride at the start of 2025 were driven by two main areas of concern:

  1. Tariffs 2.0 – President Trump has been quoted: “Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary”. His opening salvo of tariff announcements on America’s major trade partners of 25% for Canada, Mexico and 10% on China on top of existing tariffs escalated trade tensions earlier than expected.

    Tariffs and counter-tariffs are expected to dominate headlines, even if imminent 25% import tariffs on Canada and Mexico were paused for 30 days to accommodate further negotiations. For China, the US Trade Representative (USTR) is due to report on the state of US-China trade relations by 1 April. In response, China’s targeted tariffs on USD14 billon worth of goods (including US energy exports, farm equipment and automotive goods) of between 10%-15% are scheduled to take effect on 10 February. China has also launched anti-trust probes on US companies and imposed rare earth export restrictions, which impede defence-related, solar panel and electric vehicle production.

    On 9 February, President Trump further said he will impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports and will announce further reciprocal tariffs on many countries. This will trigger a reset of major relationships, destabilise current business norms with downside risks for domestic and global economies and markets.

    If tariff threats are fully enacted, impacted countries will face growth pressures while mounting US inflation risks may keep yields high and the USD strong in the early stages of Trump 2.0. Even though a strong USD could blunt the edge of import tariffs, inflationary concerns may limit the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) ability to cut interest rates. In equities, tariffs will impact the Consumer, Energy and Industrials sectors most directly. Pronounced and prolonged tariffs could present downside risks to S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) estimates and valuation multiples. However, President Trump’s domestic agenda may support corporate growth, especially as fundamentals remain solid as seen in this latest reporting season.

    In fixed income, interest rate volatility will impact bond portfolios with longer duration, and credit spreads may widen for bonds issued by selected countries such Mexico and Canada. In China, domestically focused companies with FX hedges should fare better, while hardware, semiconductor, and electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturers will be hurt by new trade tariffs.

  1. DeepSeek’s disruption of artificial intelligence (AI): The rapid developments in the AI space linked to Chinese startup DeepSeek’s lower-cost R1 model raised concerns that future Large Language Models (LLMs) will be developed with fewer AI GPUs from Nvidia, lower capital expenditure from hyperscalers, and reduce the need for a massive energy buildout in the US. This also raised the risk of an even stronger set of US sanctions on China that could weigh on the sector.

    We believe cheaper access to AI can be characterised as the Jevon’s paradox (that lower cost technology could herald market expansion) will simply spark re-alignment in the Technology sector across semiconductors, semicap equipment, application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), foundries and software companies as investors grapple with refreshed capital expenditure assumptions, supply chain vulnerabilities and technical differentiation amongst ecosystem players.

Investor’s 2025 Playbook: An infinite game

A new investor playbook is required for this multi-stage “infinite game” as the changing world order disrupts traditional rules of engagement. At Bank of Singapore, we utilise a framework under the acronym MARQUEE to describe our holistic approach towards investment.

M – Macroeconomic framework for determining insights on global growth, inflation, interest rates, return expectations and risk factors.

A – Asset Allocation Models derived from rigorous analysis of risk and investment factors. Robust portfolio optimisation in single-asset and multi-asset portfolios to achieve long-term risk-adjusted investment performance.

R – Research-driven approach for investment strategy, selection of equities, fixed income and alternatives, based on in-house analyst coverage and reputable external research partners. The selection of funds and managers is based on a robust set of due diligence criteria.

Q – Seeking quality investments through qualitative and quantitative analysis. In essence, exposure to enduring business models that are resilient in the midst of rapid change.

U – Understanding and managing risks as a crucial component of portfolio management through investment compliance, identification and management of portfolio risks and stress tests.

E – Evolving “Supertrends” are structural drivers for financial markets and business models in the medium term. Investments can be future-proofed through exposure to such structural trends.

E – Environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors feature strongly in our investment decisions, including research of investee companies, identification of climate risks and exposure to potential beneficiaries of the energy transition.

Bank of Singapore’s five key Supertrends, which we believe will shape the economic and business landscape in the next five years, have already started playing out in 2025, The Changing World Order has been catalysed by tariff-related tit-for-tat by US, China, Canada, Mexico and possibly soon, Europe.

This dovetails with a rethink about Asset Allocation in an environment with heightened uncertainty. We expect the risk premia in equities and fixed income to remain high in 1H25 as markets navigate the policy backdrop of tariffs, taxes and inflationary concerns from Trump 2.0.

Although equities may experience a consolidation phase, President Trump’s pro-growth focus and healthy corporate fundamentals support our Overweight position in US equities. We also favour Asia ex-Japan equities, with a preference for HK/China, Singapore, Indonesia, Philippines and India. For fixed income, we maintain a more defensive positioning, favouring short-dated and intermediate maturities as credit spreads across both Developed Markets (DM) and Emerging Markets (EM) corporates remain tight by historical standards. Within multi-asset portfolios, private markets, hedge funds and structured products can diversify portfolios while gold is an effective hedge against risks of resurgent inflation and concerns of fiscal sustainability.

AI #IRL (in real life) speaks to our conviction behind the long-term trajectory of AI innovation and highlights a research-driven approach in identifying gainers and losers of wider AI adoption. In addition, the next generation of power and renewable energy supply chain needs to build resilience, while Living 2.0 describes the impact of changing demographics on the fiscal burdens on governments as well as the consumption and savings patterns of households.

 

This article first appeared on The Business Times.

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Author:
Jean Chia
Chief Investment Officer
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