This month, over 13 million students will sit for China’s 2024 national college entrance exam (or gaokao). Meanwhile, China market participants are facing a test of perseverance, to determine if the sharp rebound in its equity market will prove to be short-lived like the stop-start market rebounds of the past two years, or will it be more durable this time around.
Over the past three months, the MSCI China Index rebounded by over 20% from its mid-January 2024 trough to enter a technical bull phase that significantly outperformed the S&P 500 Index and MSCI World Index. Despite the recent pull-back in China and Hong Kong markets due to profit taking in May, we believe that this market recovery is at its early stages and poised for gains over the medium to long term.
At Bank of Singapore, we recently upgraded China and Hong Kong in our equity strategy to Overweight, as the fundamental risk-reward of China and Hong Kong equities has reached an inflection point. Our confidence is driven by the following:
Unprecedented real estate policy playbook: While the property downturn remains a major drag, China announced a comprehensive suite of measures on 17 May 2024 including easing rules on purchases and removing the floor on mortgage rates to address key issues of weak demand, excess supply and sector liquidity in the real estate sector. One of the most significant is CNY500b of loans (of which CNY300b will be funded by PBoC relending facilities) through 21 national banks for local governments to purchase unsold completed properties from developers for affordable social housing. While the jury is still out on the scale and efficacy of the current policies, we believe policymakers stand ready to expand the policy magnitude, especially if incoming residential property transaction volumes and prices remain weak in the run-up to the Third Plenum in July.
Investment opportunities in Asia for 2H24
Against global market uncertainties, Asia offers diversification for investors seeking exposure to longer-term structural themes including access to a growing middle class, the prospects of near-shoring, re-building of supply chains and intra-Asian trade amidst US-China geopolitical uncertainties. Infrastructure investments to support climate resilience, artificial intelligence (AI) innovation and social infrastructure also offer investors a wealth of opportunities.
Despite recent market volatility on the back of India’s election outcome, where the ruling Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) under Prime Minister Narendra Modi lost its outright majority, we believe Indian companies benefit from macroeconomic growth, favourable demographics and structural improvements. While we currently hold an Overweight position on Indian fixed income and favour corporate issuers selectively across sectors (including renewable energy and airports), the newly formed government’s policies in relation to key sectors will be closely watched.
This article was first published in The Business Times.
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